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Thank you for joining this week's edition of Brainwaves. I'm Drew Jackson, and today we're exploring:

The Waves of Space Commercialization

Key Question: What can we learn about space exploration and commercialization efforts in 2025 from the history of space commercialization?

Thesis: Space commercialization efforts came in spurts where someone would discover something critical and that would almost immediately prompt other discoveries, then a lull. Previously unknown to humans, many people have studied and have tried to capture the mysteries of space over the following millenia.

Credit Mashable

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Time to Read: 18 minutes.

Let’s dive in!

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Space is a huge discussion—I’ve only touched the surface.

I’ve previously talked about emerging space companies (like SpaceX, Blue Origin, etc.) that are pioneering new sectors such as space tourism and space manufacturing.

We’ve explored the next wave of space commercialization (Space Commercialization 2.0) and how sights are being set on space voyages and space colonization.

Underpinning all of this growth is what’s called the “Commercial Low Earth Orbit”, comprising in-space services and other space- and Earth-based infrastructure.

Finally, we’ve discussed the qualitative factors pushing space commercialization forward and preventing its growth such as regulations, laws, and unit economics.

The takeaways from this discussion were incredibly convoluted:

Yet, throughout these essays, I missed a critical question that should have been the first hurdle tackled in this discussion.

Should we even be commercializing space at all?

Space is cool and it’s being commercialized at an increasingly exponential rate. So, it was natural that I would instantly make the jump to talking about what’s happening, rather than taking a step back to dissect whether what’s happening should even be happening at all.

Space has fascinated humans for thousands of years.

The first documented cases of astronomy were in Mesopotamia (a historical region in West Asia), somewhere between 3,000 and 4,000 BCE, specifically in the society of Babylon. During this time, they erected tall watchtowers to scan the night sky, map the stars and visible planets, recording their observations on clay tablets.

The Babylonians integrated much of their astrological knowledge into many aspects of their culture.

From a religious point of view, their most important temples, called ziggurats, were built to further connect Earth and heaven. They believed many of the celestial bodies were manifestations of their gods: the Sun was Shamash, the planet Venus was Ishtar, the planet Jupiter was Marduk, etc. Priests were also astronomers, making celestial observations from the tops of their tall temples.

Their astronomers compiled detailed daily records of planetary positions, recording unusual celestial events (and how they coincided with important political and economic events).

This data was used to create calendars, specifically to coordinate agricultural cycles. They also were some of the first to practice a form of astrology using horoscopes and birth charts. Celestial positions were used to time religious ceremonies, royal activities, and to make political and military decisions.

Early mathematical models based on astronomy were formed, predicting future planetary movements quite accurately. Other mathematical advances were made using this knowledge, specifically, the Babylonians invented the 360-degree circle, the base-60 numerical system which was primarily for timekeeping (60 minutes in an hour, 60 seconds in a minute, etc.).

Their legacy still persists today. We still use many of their innovations, including the 360-degree circle and the 60-minute hour. Their detailed records have helped modern astronomers track millennia-long celestial changes.

Yet this fascination with space and “the great beyond” wasn’t isolated to this region.

In Africa, ancient Egyptians (around 3,000 BCE) specifically aligned their pyramids with the stars and developed a calendar based on astronomical observations.

In East Asia, ancient Chinese astronomers (around 2,000 BCE) kept detailed records of celestial events and also developed sophisticated astrological calendar systems.

In Central & South America, ancient Mayans (around 2,000 BCE) built space observatories and developed highly accurate calendars based on astronomical calculations.

The Babylonians stood out against all of these groups because they left us an extensive astronomical record on clay tablets, particularly the intact Venus tablet of Ammisaduqa (carved around 1600 BCE). Many believe they were the first society to develop a truly systematic, mathematical approach to studying the heavens, making them pioneers in the field of scientific astronomy.

Primitively, humans’ intrigue with space and the things beyond our immediate world was based on viewing the distant lights in the night sky, however, in the 21st century this intrigue is now based on much deeper, science-based knowledge.

Similar to almost every new, unique thing we humans come across, we want to take ownership of it, we want to understand it, we want to make it ours.

A Good Example - The Human Genome Project

In 1869, DNA was first discovered by Johann Friedrich Miescher. In the century following, scientists began to understand the rich complexities of this discovery. In the 1970s, Frederick Sanger discovered the first way to sequence DNA, determining the order of nucleotides in DNA molecules.

Once we knew how to understand the human DNA sequence, people began to understand the unknown and wanted to own it. And so the Human Genome Project began.

In the initial conference on the human genome in 1985, American biologist Robert Sinsheimer stated, “for the first time in all time, a living creature understands its origin and can undertake to design its future.”

The Human Genome Project is one of the greatest scientific feats in history, running from 1990 until 2003. The project was led by an international group of researchers looking to comprehensively study all of the DNA in some organisms.

For most, the Human Genome Project’s signature accomplishment was to generate the first entire sequence of the human genome. A quick Google search tells you that the human genome is around 3 billion pairs long (a large, complex task). This accomplishment helped provide fundamental information about the human blueprint, improving the fields of biology and medicine tremendously. This project was at the time, and continues to be, the largest collaborative biology project ever.

A quick biology aside: the genome of any given individual is unique. Mapping the human genome involved sequencing a variety of samples collected from various individuals across the globe, then mixed together to form a mosaic of sorts. The value of a project like this is in the fact that the vast majority of the human genome is the same in all humans, with only minute differences providing uniqueness to each of us.

When the project was “finished” in 2003, only 92% of the genome had been sequenced. By 2021, only 0.3% was left. In 2022, the entire genome was finally sequenced from beginning to end.

A Bad Example - Early Colonizers of America

In the Oxford University Press, Iris H. W. Engstrand discussed early Spanish explorers, dubbed “conquistadors” and their dealings with native populations. Many of you will be familiar with this story (or parts of it).

To set the stage, Spaniards came to the New World during the colonial period in search of wealth and Indian labor.

Engstrand writes:

Early Space Exploration & The Apollo Project

Space has been no different, as humans try to understand, explore, and ultimately own the space directly in our solar system, with the goal of expanding our reach throughout much of the known universe.

My first thesis statement, the first sentence I ever wrote regarding the field of space, magically encapsulated this entire thought without me entirely knowing or acknowledging the depth of what I was discussing:

Captured by the magicalness of space, human exploration and utilization of space will continually exponentially expand, creating valuable opportunities for innovation.

Throughout history, we’ve seen this thesis play out in waves.

Wave 1 - The Foundation and Early Science of Space (Prehistoric times - 1700s)

I discussed above how early space (primarily tracking the stars and the night skies) was integrated into various societal elements. Here are a couple of other notable developments through this time:

• Around 300 BCE, Aristarchus of Samos proposed a heliocentric model of the universe. This model placed the Sun at the center of the universe, with the Earth and other planets revolving around it.
• Around 150 CE, astronomer and mathematician Claudius Ptolemy developed the geocentric model of the universe. This model placed the Earth at the center of the universe, with the Sun, Moon, planets, and stars all orbiting around the Earth.

I think we’ve discussed enough about ancient history, let’s get into more modern evolutions.

Fast forward to the early 1600s, 3 important people made key discoveries that progressed the world’s scientific understanding of space and the cosmos.

Johannes Kepler was born in 1571 in Germany. He was an astronomer, mathematician, astrologer, natural philosopher, and a surprising writer of music. He is known for a lot of things, but for our purposes today, we’ll be discussing his laws of planetary motion.

In 1609, Kepler published his 3 laws of planetary motion, describing the orbits of planets around the Sun. Up until this point, the widely held belief was that the planets orbited circularly around the Sun. The three laws can be described as the following:

• Planets move in elliptical orbits around the Sun
• When a planet is closer to the Sun, it travels faster (we’ll learn later how gravity explains this)
• The further a planet is from the Sun, the longer its orbital period (how long it takes to orbit the Sun).

Galileo Galilei was born in 1564 in Italy. He was an astronomer, physicist, engineer, and polymath. Like Kepler, he is known for a lot of things, today we’ll be discussing his discovery of the telescope.

In 1608, Hans Lippershey invented the spyglass in the Netherlands (see the image below):

Credit Cabinet

After Galileo learned of the newly invented spyglass (a device that made far objects appear closer), Galileo acquired the technology and made a new and improved version. This became the foundation for the modern telescope.

In 1609, just a year later, Galileo became the first person to record observations of the sky using his telescope. He began making astronomical discoveries immediately. Some notable discoveries are detailed below:

• At the time, most scientists believed that the Moon was smooth, but Galileo discovered the Moon has mountains, pits, and other features.
• When he looked at Jupiter, Galileo found that the planet had 4 stars (later discovered to be moons) surrounding it
• Viewing Venus over time, Galileo found confirming evidence that the planets rotate around the Sun

And finally, Isaac Newton was born in 1642. He was a mathematician, physicist, astronomer, alchemist, theologian, author, and polymath. Like our other scientists, he is known for a lot of things, today we’ll be discussing his laws of motion and universal gravitation.

Newton’s 3 laws of motion are detailed by NASA below:

How do these theoretical laws apply to space science and commercialization?

Newton’s laws of motion and gravity have made it possible to calculate precise orbital trajectories for satellites. They have made it possible to predict planetary positions, determine escape velocity requirements for leaving Earth, and allow spacecraft to use slingshot maneuvers (using gravity), among many others.

Wave 2 - The Early Rocketry Era (1800s - 1940s)

Rockets have been around for way longer than I would have imagined. Anthropologists have traced the origins to around 400 BCE when Archytas propelled a wooden bird along suspended wires using steam, the first device to display the vague “principles of rocket flight”.

The first recorded example of a “rocket launcher” was in the 1380s in the Ming Dynasty (China), called the “wasp nest”, a device capable of launching fiery arrows (see image below):

Credit Powerhouse Collection

Rockets were generally only used for warfare and special events (fireworks) until the mid-1800s. At the beginning of the 1900s, there began to be a shift in the thought behind rockets.

Fiction writers such as Jules Verne (in 1865) and H. G. Wells (in 1901), in their writings during this period talked about the human drive for space exploration. They explored the technical challenges of life support systems, the psychological impact of space travel, the need for careful mathematical calculations, the relationship between military and scientific purposes, and how there would be international cooperation and competition in space.

Only recently brought into the mainstream, William Leitch actually recognized the potential for rockets to be used in space before them, in 1861. His proposal described how rockets would work more efficiently in space than in Earth’s atmosphere, and would outperform any other method of flight.

More popularly known and recognized, Konstantin Tsiolkovsky, was previously heralded as the founder of astronautics, space flight, and modern rocketry. His most significant contribution was the Tsiolkovsky equation in 1903 which describes the relationship between a rocket’s mass, its exhaust velocity, and the change in velocity it can achieve—an equation that remains essential for rocket design and missions today. Tsiolkovsky proposed using liquid propellants for rockets (rocket fuel), described multi-stage rockets, designed airlock systems, and envisioned space stations and space tourism.

Fast forward a decade and there began to be people putting these teachings into practice. Robert Goddard, an American engineer born in 1882, built the world’s first liquid-fueled rocket. This rocket was successfully launched in 1926. He and his team launched 34 rockets between 1926 and 1941, achieving altitudes as high as 1.6 miles and speeds as fast as 550 mph.

In the 1920s, three space pioneers emerged independently: Robert Goddard in America, Hermann Oberth in Germany, and members of the Soviet Union's GIRD (Group for the Study of Reactive Motion). Goddard achieved the first liquid-fueled rocket launch in 1926, while Oberth's theoretical work inspired a generation of German rocketeers.

The 1930s saw the formation of various rocket societies across multiple countries. The German VfR (Society for Space Travel) included Wernher von Braun and other future leaders of rocket development. In the Soviet Union, Sergei Korolev began his work on rockets, though his progress would be interrupted by Stalin's purges. The American Rocket Society began experimenting with liquid-fueled rockets and established some of the first connections between rocketry and private industry.

The onset of WWII began a large increase in rocket development and deployment, particularly in Germany. The V-2 rocket, developed by Wernher von Braun, was one of the first ballistic missiles. When launched, it reached the edge of space, proving that spaceflight was achievable. Meanwhile, companies like Aerojet in the US began developing rocket engines for military applications, establishing the first true rocket industry.

Immediately post-WWII but before the space race (detailed below), many countries tried to acquire German rocket technology and expertise. Operation Paperclip brought von Braun and other German scientists to America, while the Soviets captured V-2 manufacturing facilities and technical documents. During this time, the first corporate entities specifically focused on space technology began to emerge. Companies like Douglas Aircraft, North American Aviation, and General Electric started rocket development programs, laying the groundwork for the commercial space industry.

Wave 3 - The Governmental Space Race (1950s - 1970s)

Post-WWII, the arms race transitioned into a Space Race. As previously discussed, WWII demonstrated that rocket technology would drive modern warfare. This sparked a race between the United States and Russia to have the most superior space technology across the globe.

There were no set rules for the Space Race, no playbook, nothing was off limits.

Both countries were competing to be the first to put some sort of vessel into space. The United States tried using the Navy’s Vanguard rocket, but this ended up in a spectacular disaster.

The first major success was by the Russians when they launched their Sputnik satellite in 1957, the first official vessel in space. People in the United States started to wonder why the Russians could do things that the United States couldn’t.

Before Kennedy’s call to send a man to the Moon, the early years of the Space Race marked successes through headline-making “firsts”: the first satellite, the first man in space, the first woman in space, the first spacewalk. To the dismay of the United States, each of these early feats was achieved first by the Soviet Union. These events triggered a drive to catch up with—and surpass—the Soviets.

In 1961, President Kennedy aligned the global goal by declaring that the United States would land a man on the Moon before the Soviets. The Space Race became a race to the Moon.

The Smithsonian puts this time into perspective nicely:

Although the United States has turned its sights on the Moon, there were many other “firsts” that needed to be met before they would be ready for a crewed landing on the surface of the Moon. The Soviets would beat the Americans to the finish line in many of these. Although it seemed that the U.S. still lagged behind the U.S.S.R. in space, in reality, the United States was following a methodical step-by-step program, in which each mission built upon and extended the previous ones. The Mercury and Gemini missions carefully prepared the way for the Apollo lunar missions.

In the United States, one-person Mercury missions developed hardware for spaceflight and began to show how human beings would fare in space. From 1961 to 1963, the US flew 6 crewed Mercury missions.

Then came the Gemini missions, with 10 crewed missions flown between 1964 to 1966 to improve techniques of spacecraft control, rendezvous, docking, and spacewalking. One mission spent two weeks in space.

Following Gemini, the fabled Apollo program began. Sparing the details, in 1969, an estimated 650 million people (around 20% of the world’s population) watched Neil Armstrong walk on the moon and said the famous line: “That's one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind.” The United States successfully landed humans on the Moon and returned them safely.

Once achieved, the “Space Race” mania was effectively finished - the bubble burst. For the Soviets, the competition with the United States did not entirely end, shifting to pursue longer-term space ventures such as space stations, exploration of other planets, sending probes into outer space, etc.

Wave 4 - Early Commercial Space & International Collaboration (1970s - 1990s)

After the major government missions sparked immense growth in the space industry, private entities began to enter the sector, beginning the first era of “space commercialization”.

The United States government developed the Space Shuttle program during this period, one of the first reusable vehicles that would make space access more routine and cost-effective. This began the major trend of cost and time overruns in space missions. In the early stages, NASA estimated the program would cost $7.45B ($43B adjusted in 2011 dollars when the program would end). Unfortunately, the 30-year program would cost around $196B (adjusted for 2011 dollars).

During the 1970s, the commercial satellite industry was formed. Previously, in 1961, the OSCAR 1 satellite was launched into space aboard an American Thor-Agena rocket. It was the first amateur radio satellite (and some argue the first private satellite) launched into space. From 1962 to 1975, 4 more private commercial satellites were launched into space by AT&T, Telesat Canada, Intelsat, and Western Union. Companies like RCA, Hughes, and Fore Aerospace began building communications satellites for both government and private customers.

The Commercial Space Launch Act of 1984 established legal frameworks in the United States for private space launches, requiring all launch vehicles and launch sites in the United States to be licensed and abide by Federal Laws. This law delayed private space commercialization efforts by a small bit. Other examples of significant space laws over time are included here.

In 1986, the Space Shuttle Challenger, on a mission to deploy a communications satellite in space and study Halley’s Comet, broke apart 73 seconds into its flight at around 46,000 feet, killing all 7 crew members aboard. An unfortunate disaster, this led to a transition by many major players to push more commercial payloads toward private launchers rather than the Space Shuttle.

After early satellite launches in the 1960s and 1970s by commercial entities sending the first set of communications satellites into orbit, many companies began to recognize the value of a space-based global telecommunications network. Companies like Intelsat and PanAmSat expanded their satellite fleets, while new startups like Iridium and Globalstar proposed “satellite constellations” for mobile communications.

By the 1990s, the commercial space industry had grown significantly, with some estimates placing the market size greater than that of government space programs (see chart below):

Credit American Academy of Arts and Sciences

Even though there was large growth in the 1990s by commercial entities, the number of launches rapidly declined over time (see image below). After the space race ended, there was less political and financial motivation to sustain high launch frequencies, so many entities dialed back their efforts. In addition, the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 led to a significant reduction in Russian space activities during the period.

The US wasn’t without challenges. After the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster, NASA shifted much of its focus to safety improvements and cautious operations, which slowed the pace of launches.

Credit Rocket Launch

International cooperation with regard to space began to become commonplace during this era. The United States and the European Space Agency collaborated to launch the Hubble Telescope in 1990, one of the most influential scientific instruments ever deployed.

The most notable project during this era was the beginning of the International Space Station program in 1998. The project involved the United States, Russia, the European Space Agency, Japan, and Canada, representing a unifying effort to share resources, expertise, and scientific goals.

Throughout this period, government space agencies across the world increasingly embraced commercial partnerships. These changes set the stage for the more dramatic commercial space developments that would follow in the 21st century, with companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin bringing new approaches to space access and exploration.

Wave 5 - The Rise of Private Space Ventures and Modern Exploration (2000s - Present)

In the modern era of space commercialization and exploration, companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin have increased the number of private space missions exponentially.

I’ve written extensively in my previous articles about the current state of space commercialization and its future, so I won’t bore you with continued reiteration. A quick summary of my findings is below:

• There has been increased global participation (India, China, US, Russia, etc.)
• Companies are developing new technologies to increase reliability, sustainability, efficiency, fuel efficiency, strength, and more with the goal of making space commercialization efforts more effective.
• A new era of space exploration and commercialization may be upon us

That’s much more context than you were probably expecting, but I believe it helps properly frame the following discussion quite well.

(Part 5 of the Space Commercialization series coming next week)...

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That’s all for today. I’ll be back in your inbox on Saturday with The Saturday Morning Newsletter.

Thanks for reading,

Drew Jackson

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