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Thank you for reading the Brainwaves newsletter. I’m Drew Jackson, your content curator, and today I’m writing about nuclear energy current events. Let’s dive in.

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Credit International Monetary Fund

Nuclear Energy

Thesis: The field of nuclear energy is continuously under development, with key advancements being made almost daily. This essay summarizes the most important developments so far in 2024.

I’ve been writing about nuclear energy for years now, so it wouldn’t be a nuclear update without referencing all of the previous materials (for your reading pleasure):

• Nuclear vs. Renewables: Solution to Energy Crisis? - Detailing the pros and cons of the different proposed energy solutions.
• Myths of Nuclear: Fake or Fact? - Debunking popular myths associated with nuclear energy - trying to educate everyday people.
• Nuclear is Not A Viable Solution - Detailing all of the ways nuclear energy isn’t currently viable as a future solution.
• Think Small: The Rise of Micro Nuclear Reactors - Understanding how new reactor designs may allow nuclear to be viable, but need more R&D.
• China: Usurping the US as Nuclear Powerhouse? - Is China developing nuclear capabilities to surpass the United States’ capabilities currently? What is the US doing to respond?
• Thorium: Energy of the Future? - Detailing thorium, a historical alternative to uranium, and its potential as a safer solution for our future.
• Nuclear Energy 101 - Introducing the basics of nuclear energy, the technology, and the world energy landscape

Today my goal is to give a longer-form update on the current state of nuclear energy around the world by highlighting key events, articles, and more that have happened in the last year.

1) COP 28

Previously covered in my Nuclear vs. Renewables essay, I discussed how at the COP 28 conference, many countries agreed to triple nuclear capacity by 2050. There are many nuances to this agreement, the first of which is renewable energy tripling by 2030, poised to gather a majority stake in the world’s energy mix. If you are interested in learning more, I would recommend my previous article.

2) Nuclear Energy Summit March 2024 - Brussels

World leaders gathered in Brussels in March of 2024 for the first Nuclear Energy Summit. The goal was to highlight the role of nuclear energy in reducing the use of fossil fuels, enhancing energy security, and furthering economic development.

They made a declaration, seen here, the main points of which are summarized below:

• “[We see] nuclear energy as a key component of our global strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from both power and industrial sectors, ensure energy security, enhance energy resilience, and promote long-term sustainable development and clean energy transition.”
• “Nuclear energy is a reliable and dispatchable zero-emission source of electricity generation and a firm backbone for clean energy systems to keep them resilient and sustainable.”
• “We praise the recognition at the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference of nuclear energy as an essential component of a multifaceted and all-inclusive clean energy transition sufficient to reduce greenhouse gases in an effective, timely, and nationally determined manner.”
• “We are committed to continuing our drive for technological innovation, further improving the operational performance, safety, and economics of nuclear power plants, enhancing the resilience and security of global nuclear energy industrial and supply chains.”
• “We call upon relevant international organizations and institutions to support appropriate conditions for nuclear energy development.”

The New York Times article has the following excerpt:

There was an acknowledgment of the difficulty of their undertaking. “Nuclear technology can play an important role in the clean energy transition,” Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, told summit attendees. But she added that “the reality today, in most markets, is a reality of a slow but steady decline in market share” for nuclear power.

My analysis: Although the statements made during the Brussels summit are admirable and undoubtedly a step in the right direction, I fear they have little to no weight behind them. Like many nuclear-focused climate pledges, the ability to act quickly and change behavior/situations/regulations, I am unsure whether anything will change as a result of this declaration. I will say, however, that this effort is better than nothing.

3) G7 Ministers’ Meeting on Climate, Energy, and Environment April 2024 - Italy

The G7 countries met about climate, energy, and environmental matters in Italy in April 2024. There were a variety of different topics discussed, ranging from renewable energy to energy infrastructure to nuclear energy to energy security and more.

The nuclear commitments are listed below:

1. Support multilateral efforts to strengthen the resilience of nuclear supply chains;
2. Continue the cooperation for building a robust nuclear supply chain in the framework of G7 and of the Nuclear Energy Working Group established in Sapporo;
3. For those countries that opt to use nuclear energy or support its use, promote research and development initiatives on innovative nuclear power technologies;
4. For those countries that opt to use nuclear energy or support its use, promote the responsible deployment of nuclear energy technologies including for advanced and small modular reactors, including microreactors, and work collectively to share national best practices, including for responsible waste management, enable greater access to project financing tools, support sectorial collaboration, designing licensing procedures and strengthening coordination on development of commercial projects among interested G7 members and third markets.

My analysis: Similar to the above summit commentary, I think these comments are good, but the G7 countries aren’t those who are pursuing nuclear energy as much as other countries. For instance, countries like the United States have only constructed less than 5 major reactors in the last 20 years.

4) Nuclear Power Is Hard. A Climate-Minded Billionaire Wants to Make It Easier.

A New York Times article in June documented Bill Gates making the groundbreaking shovel on TerraPower’s nuclear plant in Kemmerer, Wyoming. This new nuclear reactor design is meant to be smaller and cheaper than current reactor designs.

Yet, it isn’t all sunshine and rainbows. The article states the following:

The reactor being built by TerraPower, a start-up, won’t be finished until 2030 at the earliest and faces daunting obstacles. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission hasn’t yet approved the design, and the company will have to overcome the inevitable delays and cost overruns that have doomed countless nuclear projects before.

Bill Gates’s involvement with TerraPower stems from the fact he thinks that wind and solar will need supplementary energy sources during downturns, ones that are extremely reliable and could form the backbone of our energy grid. The solution is simple: nuclear.

TerraPower, funded by Bill Gates and other prominent investors, is a project to develop a learning curve to repopulate nuclear energy as a significant energy source in the United States’ energy mix. TerraPower is doing this by funding a team of hundreds of engineers to redesign a nuclear plant from scratch.

My analysis: Bill Gates backing nuclear is a huge win. He provides much-needed capital (nuclear is expensive) as well as much-needed advertising (nuclear needs to be in the positive limelight again) as well as political and other influence (nuclear regulations and other factors need to be softened for nuclear to be popularized). However, it may be too late, as wind and solar are already being popularized.

5) United States New Reactors in 2024

The United States Department of Energy estimates that there are 3 reactors estimated to start the construction permitting process with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in 2024.

From the article:

TerraPower plans to build its sodium-cooled fast reactor and molten salt energy storage system near a retiring coal plant in Kemmerer, Wyoming.

X-energy plans to build a four-unit, high-temperature gas reactor plant at Dow’s Seadrift manufacturing site in Texas.

Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) also plans to submit a construction permit application by late summer 2024. TVA is considering the potential deployment of GE-Hitachi's BWRX-300 advanced light water small modular reactor at the Clinch River nuclear site in Oak Ridge, Tennessee.

My analysis: The United States needs more nuclear expertise and clean energy production. This is a step in the right direction, however for a country the size and scale of the United States, especially considering our dominance in nuclear energy historically, this is not near enough of an effort.

6) Other New Reactors in 2024: China, France, India, Korea, Slovakia

The World Nuclear Association lists that the construction of 7 new reactors is estimated to start in 2024.

China - Xiapu 1 Reactor - CFR600 Model - 600 MW

China - Zhangzhou 1 Reactor - Hualong One Model - 1212 MW

China - Shidaowan 1 Reactor - CAP1400 Model - 1500 MW

France - Flamanville 3 Reactor - EPR Model - 1650 MW

India - Kalpakkam PFBR Reactor - FBR Model - 500 MW

Korea - Saeul 3 Reactor - APR1400 Model - 1400 MW

Slovakia - Mochovce 4 - VVER-400 Model - 471 MW

My analysis: The United States alone installed 26,000 MW worth of solar energy in 2023. So, the construction of 7,333 MW worth of nuclear energy at some unknown future date isn’t very admirable. Granted, it is better than nothing, but it will not measure against whatever the solar MW installed in the future will be (given the exponential learning curve solar is currently on).

7) International Conference on the Management of Spent Fuel

The 37th Spent Fuel Management Conference by the Institute of Nuclear Materials Management took place in January in Virginia. The International Atomic Energy Agency Director, General Rafael Mariano Grossi began the conference by saying:

“The moment requires us to be laser focused on all the spent fuel issues that need to be discussed, ranging from repositories to transportation, and all the other topics that will be represented here.”

The goal of this conference was to address future increases in nuclear activity that would lead to increased waste volume needing to be reprocessed and stored. The nuclear community, prior to this occurrence, needs to be prepared with adequate infrastructure and division of responsibilities.

My analysis: Spent nuclear fuel has been successfully managed since the start of nuclear, but countries have always been reluctant to want spent nuclear material in their country as it provides the potential for proliferation and radioactive issues. This conference is a good start, being proactive rather than reactive.

8) Deep Geological Repositories in Poland Are Almost Complete

Speaking of nuclear waste management, one potential solution being implemented is the plan to store spent nuclear waste in deep geological repositories. One plant being built is in Poland where nuclear waste will be packed into disposal canisters made of copper, graphite, and iron. These canisters will be placed into underground tunnels at least 400-450 meters deep.

The Poland plant has begun construction, with the transfer mechanism being finished early in 2024. Operation is expected to begin soon.

My analysis: The rationale behind these plants is decent. Instead of storing nuclear waste above ground in cement casks, the idea is to bury them so deep that they won’t have any radiation effects and won’t be discovered for tens of thousands of years. Will this work for that length of time? Probably not, but it’s at least a better solution than the current situation.

9) The United States Opens a Request for Proposals for Low-Enriched Uranium

In May of 2024, President Biden signed the Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act which banned the importation of low-enriched uranium—the uranium used in nuclear energy—from Russia.

Soon after, the Department of Energy released a “request for proposals” for low-enriched uranium enrichment. Companies interested can submit proposals for plants that would enrich low-enriched uranium domestically.

The Department of Energy representative is quoted as saying:

“Today’s action will help spur the safe and responsible build-out of uranium enrichment capacity in the United States, promote diversity in the market, and provide a reliable supply of commercial nuclear fuel to support the energy security and resilience of the American people and domestic industries, free from Russian influence.”

My analysis: This is a common step in the process of critical technology in the history of the United States. When something becomes critical to our success as a country, we feel the need to protect the supply domestically. A common current event example would be the production of semiconductors domestically. By bringing uranium enrichment to the United States, we have more energy security, encourage industry production, and continue to expand nuclear expertise domestically.

10) Congress Passes ADVANCE Act to Facilitate Development of Advanced Nuclear Reactors

In June, the United States Senate passed the Accelerating Deployment of Versatile, Advanced Nuclear for Clean Energy (ADVANCE) Act. The goals of the ADVANCE Act are to accelerate the deployment of the United States’ nuclear energy capacity by increasing licensing efforts and crafting new incentives for advanced nuclear reactor technologies.

The Act calls for a change to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's mission, among other things. This change, critics argue, “directs the agency to enforce only the bare minimum level of regulation at every facility it oversees across the United States.”

In addition to this change in the NRC’s mission statement, the Act directs the NRC to reduce licensing application fees, create expedited procedures for already-certified commercial reactor designs on or adjacent to existing or previous commercial reactor sites, establish risk-informed and performance-based guidance for microreactor licensing, and coordinate with the Department of Energy on advance nuclear fuel qualification and licensing.

My analysis: This is a huge step in the right direction. For those who are familiar with the nuclear regulatory environment in the United States, you know that the NRC has been a major blockade to nuclear progress, requiring extremely strict safeguards and stretching application processes to be years longer than necessary. By reducing the unnecessary regulatory burden–while still keeping the core necessary tenets–nuclear designs will be able to be licensed and regulated more efficiently, spurring further industry expansion and commercialization.

11) Nuclear on the World Stage

Bloomberg recently released a report with the following image:

As you can see, some countries, like China, have immense plans to increase their nuclear fleet in the coming years. Other countries like the United States and South Korea are lagging behind, relying majorly on their existing operations rather than planning for any new reactors.

My analysis: I think this graph is fantastic for understanding ongoing nuclear expertise. For instance, in countries with no gray or red squares, you can see that no reactors are currently being built or about to be built. This can signal that those countries lack current nuclear expertise, meaning that they may be shifting towards other sources of energy such as solar or wind.

Takeaways

Firstly, I hope I didn’t miss any critical developments in the United States’ nuclear landscape in the last year. If I did, please let me know.

As for takeaways, these last couple of months have featured many conferences, declarations, laws, and agreements. These political functions are good, however most of the time they are just talking about issues rather than building actionable solutions. For instance, we’ve seen regulations softened and uranium production domesticated, yet only 4 reactors are beginning the construction licensing process this year. In an ideal world, there would be many more.

See you Saturday for The Saturday Morning Newsletter,

Drew Jackson

Twitter: @brainwavesdotme

Email: brainwaves.me@gmail.com

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