Hello!

Welcome to the Insights, Innovation, and Economics blog. If you’re new here, feel free to read my general Introduction to the Blog to understand more about the blog. If you’re returning, thank you, and hope you have a great read!

Thesis: Space has been and will continue to be a prized possession, sought after by companies and governments galore. Traditionally, space commercialization has been limited to near-Earth applications such as launch services and satellites. Yet, many emerging opportunities are on the horizon, such as manufacturing, mining, and tourism.

If you haven’t read my Space Primer, I’d highly recommend it before reading this article as some of the terminology associated with this subject may be difficult to understand.

Credit Wharton University of Pennsylvania

Space Commercialization

In my Introduction to Space post, I wrote the following:

So, today we’re going to discuss the different aspects of space commercialization, innovation, and exploration that have bolstered our economy here on Earth and will only continue to grow in popularity. Here’s everything that we’re going to talk about today:

• Legacy Space Industries
• Emerging Space Industries
• Space Companies & New Space Entrepreneurs

Credit WGCU

Legacy Space Industries

Traditionally, legacy space industries include satellite communications, satellite navigation, satellite remote sensing, and space launch services.

Satellites

Credit Inmarsat

There are over 9,000 satellites in space currently. These satellites have many different uses and functions, which I’ll explain below. But, taking a step back:

Why do we need satellite communications?

Satellite communications open access to voice and data communication services in places where Earth-based cellular and broadband connectivity is not available or network coverage is patchy. Everyday uses are the following:

• Telecommunications
• TV and radio broadcasting
• High-speed Wifi and mobile broadband
• Navigation & GPS

How do they work?

Satellite communications use a combination of satellites in orbit and ground stations to transmit and relay information from one point on Earth to another. There are 3 stages in this process:

• Uplink: Sending the signal via a terminal to a satellite up in space.
• Transponder: The onboarding amplifiers on the satellite boost the signal strength and change the frequency of the signal before it is relayed back to the designated Earth ground station(s).
• Downlink: The satellite transmitters send a signal to a different ground station on Earth.

What are the different types of satellites?

Low Earth Orbit: Low orbit satellites orbit between 160 to 2,000 kilometers above the Earth’s surface, orbiting the Earth around every 90 minutes. A large constellation of satellites is needed to achieve global coverage.

Since these satellites are at a low altitude, they have a smaller field of vision and lower latency to accurately relay higher levels of data much more accurately and effectively.

Medium Earth Orbit: Medium orbit satellites orbit between 2,000 and 35,786 kilometers above the Earth’s surface, orbiting the Earth every two to eight hours. These satellites are traditionally used for GPS and other navigational applications.

Highly Elliptical Orbit: High elliptical orbit satellites orbit between 1,000 to 42,000 kilometers above the Earth’s surface. This gives satellites a nearly unobstructed view of Earth and deep space, making them ideal for astronomical observations and Earth monitoring.

Geostationary Earth Orbit: Geostationary satellites revolve around the Earth at the same speed as Earth’s orbit. This is very beneficial, as they seem to stay still, maintaining the same positioning in relation to the Earth at all times. These satellites are the furthest away from the Earth.

Geostationary satellites are extremely efficient due to their large coverage area and their ability to focus capacity over key areas. This is ideal for mobile satellite communications services where seamless and reliable connectivity is extremely important. In addition, with only 3 satellites you can achieve global coverage.

Credit Freepik

What are the different uses of satellites?

Communications Satellites

There are over 3,000 communication satellites in space currently. These satellites deliver cellular, radio, television, broadband, and military applications. To put it simply, these satellites transfer and relay information from one place to another on a global scale.

Satellite communications refer to artificial satellites that relay and amplify radio telecommunication signals. These satellites create a communication channel between the transmitter and receiver at different locations on Earth.

Wikipedia cites the following structure for these satellites:

Navigation Satellites

A satellite navigation system uses satellites to provide locational data (usually geopositioning). The original motivation for satellite navigation was for military applications–giving precise coordinates for weapons, troop movements, etc.

Now, satellite navigation systems are used by everyday people, helping find the location of people or objects at any given moment. The range of applications for these satellites is immense, including both the public and private sectors across numerous segments such as science, transportation, agriculture, insurance, energy, etc.

Most people will be familiar with GPS (Global Positioning System) implemented by the United States. The Federal Aviation Administration writes the following:

The basic GPS service provides users with approximately 7.0 meter accuracy, 95% of the time, anywhere on or near the surface of the earth. To accomplish this, each of the 31 satellites emits signals that enable receivers through a combination of signals from at least four satellites, to determine their location and time.

Remote Sensing Satellites

Remote sensing satellites detect and monitor the physical characteristics of areas, acquiring information from a distance. These satellites are facing the Earth or other places in our solar system. Remote sensing is used in numerous fields, including geophysics, hydrology, ecology, meteorology, etc., and can be used in other applications: military, intelligence, commercial, economic, planning, humanitarian, etc.

Wikipedia explains the differences between different types of remote-sensing satellites as the following:

Remote sensing can be divided into two types of methods: Passive remote sensing and Active remote sensing. Passive sensors gather radiation that is emitted or reflected by the object or surrounding areas. Reflected sunlight is the most common source of radiation measured by passive sensors. Examples of passive remote sensors include film photography, infrared, charge-coupled devices, and radiometers. Active collection, on the other hand, emits energy in order to scan objects and areas whereupon a sensor then detects and measures the radiation that is reflected or backscattered from the target. RADAR and LiDAR are examples of active remote sensing where the time delay between emission and return is measured, establishing the location, speed and direction of an object.

Some examples of remote sensing are the following:

• Taking images of temperature changes in the ocean
• Taking pictures of Earth’s surface for military use
• Mapping large forest fires
• Mapping the floor of the ocean at various depths
• Tracking storms
• Tracking population growth through urban and suburban expansion

Credit Statista

Satellite Industry Dynamics

As seen in the image above, growth in the satellite industry has become exponential. Why?

David Ziegler, VP of Aerospace & Defense for Dassault Systems (market cap ~$60B), writing for Space News, cites the following two reasons:

Two principal drivers of that growth are the increasing need for mobile communications and Earth observation (EO) services, from optical imagery to synthetic aperture radar able to penetrate cloud cover and see through darkness and weather.

PRNewswire suggests the following reasons:

Factors such as the increase in the number of space exploration missions, a rise in demand for satellite-based warfare, and an increase in the deployment of small satellites drive the growth of the market across the globe.

What will the satellite industry look like in the future?

Currently, the satellite market is around $280B, projected to grow at 8% per year until 2032.

Designing, manufacturing, and deploying commercial satellites is a fiercely competitive business. This has led to large innovations in the industry, decreasing costs by around 4-10x in the last 10 years alone. Satellite analysts estimate the number of satellites in orbit to reach around 58,000 by 2030 (a projected growth rate of around 36% per year).

However, this growth isn’t going to simply happen. There are many factors potentially hindering projected future growth in the industry. Quilty Space, a space research and consulting firm, only estimates that around 20,000 satellites will be in space by 2030, citing large financing headwinds and a large number of risky projects that will probably not come to fruition.

In the near-term future, the heaviest driver of new demand is SpaceX’s Starlink broadband constellation (which has already launched more than 5,400 satellites). In addition, government space activities are expected to increase due to lower-cost access and a rise in the number of national programs promoting space investment and innovation.

Credit Space.com

Space Launch Services

Space launch services have provided the backbone for the space tourism, exploration, and satellite industries, facilitating launches from the Earth to various locations in space.

Why do we need space launch services?

The space launch services industry provides the means to transport payloads, such as satellites, spacecraft, and other objects into orbits or deep space. This industry has played a crucial role in enabling various space-related activities, including satellite communications, Earth observation, scientific exploration, and human spaceflight.

How does this industry work?

Launch vehicles (we know them as rockets) deliver payloads into space. These rockets come in different sizes and configurations, ranging from small (for microsatellites) to heavy-lift rockets for massive payloads. The most common types of launch vehicles are expendable launch vehicles (ELVs)--which are used once and discarded, and reusable launch vehicles (RLVs)--which can be recovered and reused for multiple missions. Here’s an image of some of the different rockets over the years:

Credit Reddit

These launch vehicles are typically launched from designated launch sites or spaceports located around the world. The location of these spaceports is strategically chosen based on factors such as proximity to the equator, weather conditions, and safety considerations.

Yet, the launch service industry encompasses more than just the launch vehicle itself. It also includes supporting services such as payload integration, mission planning, launch range operations, telemetry and tracking, and post-launch support.

What are the different types of space launch services?

Payload Integration

A payload is any object or entity that is carried by a launch vehicle (it’s what the rocket is taking up into space). Due to the intense conditions experienced by a launch vehicle as it leaves the Earth’s atmosphere, many rocket payloads are damaged during this process.

Payload integration refers to the installation of the payload into something called the payload fairing. The payload fairing, on most rockets, is traditionally a hollow point on the very top of the rocket. This protects the payload from any launch damage as the rocket leaves the Earth’s atmosphere.

Mission Planning

Historic and recent expansion of the space industry has led to an increase in demand for space mission planning services. Mission planning and operations help set up ground stations, mission control structures, and procedures for mission operations.

Mission planning occurs before the payload is launched into space. There are many services that could be included in mission planning, including spaceflight operations, crew & operations training, architecture, program management, and safety & decision support.

Launch Range Operations

Launch range operations refer to the activities performed directly before, during, and after a payload launch. Many of these activities relate to safety, as rockets can explode directly upon launch, creating large amounts of hazardous debris. In addition, operators monitor weather conditions, assessing potential impacts on the launch and ground operations.

During the launch and after the launch, data is collected through thousands of sensors, providing video, images, and static data points for future analysis.

Telemetry and Tracking

During the flight and ongoing operations of a payload, data is constantly being sent back to Earth where it is analyzed to understand positioning, heading, operations status, and many more characteristics.

Post-Launch Support

Post-launch support is kind of an industry catch-all term, referring to anything the payload needs after the launch. This includes software updates, debris monitoring, and many more functions. The most iconic type of post-launch support is seen in manned missions where controllers on the ground are directing and instrumenting a successful mission (either to the Moon or elsewhere).

Credit Wikipedia

What are the different uses of space launch services?

Satellite Launch Services

Satellite launch services are dedicated to launching various types of satellites into various orbits around Earth (or even other places in our solar system). Many satellites are launched every year and this is a large, but majorly unseen, portion of the market. A recent example of large and multiple satellite launches has been SpaceX’s Starlink program.

Space Shuttle Launch Services

Space shuttle launch services refer to the facilitation of human transportation through space. Historically, the primary purpose of space shuttles was to support the construction and operations of the International Space Station.

Other Launch Services

There are also other different types of launch services including deep space exploration services and suborbital flight services.

Deep space exploration services help launch spacecraft and probes to other planets, asteroids, comets, or even beyond our solar system for scientific exploration. Specialized launch vehicles with high-energy capabilities are used for these missions.

Suborbital flight services launch payloads or passengers to altitudes above the Earth’s atmosphere but without achieving orbital velocity. These flights are often used for scientific experiments, technology demonstrations, or potential space tourism experiences.

Space Launch Services Industry Dynamics

The space launch services industry has grown to be very large, encapsulating many large private and public companies as well as large government agencies. This growth has been fueled by frequent satellite launches and commercial entrants.

Grand View Research cites the following:

Satellites are employed across various sectors like telecommunications, earth observation, navigation systems, and scientific research, reflecting the ongoing trend. Notably, the rapid expansion of satellite constellations, particularly for global broadband coverage, underscores the recurring trend of frequent launches to replenish and expand these networks.

In addition, the large influx of commercial entities into the space segment has profoundly impacted the space launch services market. These companies offer competitive launch services with lower costs and key technological innovations. This commercialization has increased competition, lowered launch costs, improved efficiency, and increased general space accessibility to a larger audience.

What will the space launch services industry look like in the future?

The space launch services industry is constantly evolving, driven by technological advancements, increasing demand, and the need for more cost-effective solutions. Recent trends include the development of reusable launch vehicles, air-launch systems, small satellite launchers, and the pursuit of fully reusable and rapid launch capabilities.

Various industries are beginning to invest heavily in space research and product innovations. Commercial space programs are and will continue to grow. Moreover, increased investment in new contracts by major government space programs to develop and upgrade launch vehicles is expected to support significant market growth.

Technological innovation has gained rapid popularity in this market, with niche smaller players contributing vastly to the overall growth and development of rocket and propulsion technologies. These technologies are better and more cost-effective than current market solutions, providing large incentives to adapt.

Credit NASA

Emerging Space Industries

Legacy space industries have been around for decades, providing many of the essential space services you’d be familiar with. Yet, in recent years, the demand for alternative and expanded space services has increased, creating many enticing emerging space industries, such as space tourism, space mining, and space manufacturing.

Credit InsideHook

Space Tourism

Space tourism refers to traveling into space for recreational purposes. It is also referred to as citizen space exploration, personal spaceflight, or commercial human spaceflight.

Why do we need space tourism?

Honestly, we don’t. This industry primarily caters to the rich and the ultra-rich, charging exorbitant prices for seats on these vessels (millions of dollars usually). So, in actuality, are they providing value for people? Not directly, but these spaceflights increase the size of the overall space industry, spur innovation, and create jobs in these new space tourism startups.

How does this industry work?

The space tourism industry facilitates human space travel for recreational purposes. This travel is on established government-owned vehicles or on vehicles fielded by private companies. The world’s first space tourist, Dennis Tito, flew in 2001; since then, the industry has gained significant prominence.

What are the different types of space tourism?

Orbital Space Tourism

Orbital space tourism relates to spaceflights in which passengers orbit the Earth for an extended period of time. In the past, this has been done through flights to the International Space Station or simply in a space shuttle. Companies like SpaceX have created shuttles that can be chartered for these orbital flights.

Suborbital Space Tourism

Suborbital space tourism takes passengers up to 100 km (62 miles) above Earth. These flights provide a few minutes of weightlessness and a view of the Earth’s curvature. Companies like Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic have been developing reusable rocket-powered vehicles that can take passengers on these suborbital flights, charging $450k+ per flight.

Lunar Space Tourism

Lunar space tourism refers to longer tourism opportunities, usually to the Moon. This industry hasn’t been fully deployed yet, but some space tourism startup companies are planning to offer tourism on or around the moon (hopefully by 2043). Possible attractions include viewing the moon, seeing the Earth from above, and future Moon explorations.

Space Tourism Industry Dynamics

The space tourism industry is around $1B globally (surprising, given the lack of missions completed so far). Let’s do some math. There have been around 681 people in space historically (this includes those going for non-tourism ventures). Even assuming that all of these are for tourism, this means there’s about $1.5M in this industry for everyone who’s been to space ever. That’s crazy!

What’s even crazier is the fact that the industry is expected to grow around 45% every year until 2030. Where is this growth going to occur? Here’s a graph from Grand View Research, showing the breakdown per segment over time:

What will the space tourism industry look like in the future?

What’s fueling future growth? Rising advancements in technology, a growing population of high-net-worth adventure travelers, and an increased focus on R&D within the spaceflight industry.

Technology advancements, such as improved rocket tech+nology, allow for safer and more reliable travel. These improvements also have significantly cut costs. Innovations in fuel efficiency, navigation systems, cabin design, and safety measures have made this travel more accessible.

In the short term, space tourism will continue to grow in popularity, with companies like Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin delivering suborbital spaceflight for high-paying customers. However, interest in the space tourism industry will likely take off when space tourism extends beyond the Earth’s orbit, especially when lunar missions become financially and logistically feasible.

Nevertheless, the high cost of space flight still exists as a large barrier for many customers. Many companies are trying to decrease these costs, but have yet to do so in an effective way.

Credit Minor Metals Trade Association

Space Mining

A headline from CBC News in November 2023 read the following:

“Space mining is getting closer to becoming a reality”

Why do we need space mining?

As resources continue to be depleted on Earth, the idea of extracting valuable, rare elements from other solar bodies and returning these to Earth is becoming more and more attractive. In addition, space mining could eliminate the need for traditional methods of mining.

How does this industry work?

Space mining refers to the extraction and utilization of natural resources from celestial bodies, such as asteroids, comets, moons, and planets. This mining includes the challenge of the high cost of spaceflight, as space vehicles are needed to fly to and from the asteroid.

What are the different types of space mining?

Asteroid mining

Many asteroids are rich in valuable minerals, such as iron, nickel, cobalt, platinum, and gold. Various methods have been proposed for extracting these resources from asteroids, including surface mining (landing on the surface to collect, crush, and process the material) and capture & transport (chunks could be captured and transported to a processing facility such as a space station).

However, asteroid mining faces significant technical challenges, such as the development of specialized mining equipment capable of operating in space, the ability to precisely land on asteroids, and the lack of efficient and safe transportation of resources.

Lunar mining

The Moon’s surface (soil) contains various elements and materials which are essential for many modern technologies. This includes helium-3 (used in nuclear fusion reactors), rare earth elements (REEs - used in electronics), and water (for sustaining life on the Moon or Earth). Surface mining, using excavators and processing plants, is the suggested methodology for extracting minerals from the surface–which then can be flown back to Earth or used in other space manufacturing efforts.

Lunar mining faces significant challenges, including the harsh environment on the Moon, the need for specialized equipment adapted for the Moon, and the high costs associated with transporting equipment and resources to and from the Moon.

Volatiles mining

Volatiles mining refers to extracting chemical compounds, such as water, ammonia, or methane, that can easily transition between solid, liquid, and gas states. These compounds can serve many space purposes, including life support systems, propellent production, and industrial processes.

Volatiles can be found across the solar system in asteroids, comets, craters, and moons. Asteroids and comets are believed to contain significant amounts of ice and other frozen volatiles, such as carbon dioxide and methane. Permanently shadowed craters act as cold traps, preserving volatiles like ice that may have been delivered by comets or asteroids. Moons are thought to have subsurface oceans of liquid water, which could potentially be accessed and mined.

It’s unsure exactly how these volatiles could be extracted, and developing specialized mining equipment and processing systems has proved to be harder than expected. In addition, the economic viability of volatiles mining will depend on the demand for these resources, the availability of alternative sources, and the costs associated with space transportation and operations.

Space Mining Industry Dynamics

An article from Harvard cites the following:

Generally, asteroid mining remains hypothetical, mostly because of its exorbitant cost. While specific estimates of the cost of commercial mining remain unclear, similarities can be drawn between such programs and NASA’s OSIRIS-REx mission, which seeks to obtain samples from a near-earth asteroid named Bennu. Despite only being projected to return between 400 grams and 1 kilogram of material, the mission is projected to take 7 years and cost over US$1 billion.

Currently, the global space mining industry is around $1.7B in size. The industry is expected to grow around 16% each year until 2033.

What will the space mining industry look like in the future?

Currently, governments have pushed growth in this market, encouraging private companies to undertake mining work beyond Earth. It’s clear that in the near term, the space mining industry is turning to focus directly on pursuing the Moon. Asteroids are a much longer timeframe, not something on the near horizon.

Any future growth in this market will be driven by technological developments, depleting Earth resources, future technologies and industries, space exploration, and the development of space infrastructure.

Despite the high price, the development of asteroid technology has the potential to be very lucrative. The top 10 most cost-effective asteroids are estimated to produce a profit of around $1.5T.

Credit NASA

Space Manufacturing

Space manufacturing allows new compounds and manufacturing processes to happen, providing many innovations beneficial for other space activities and even life back here on Earth.

Why do we need space manufacturing?

The space environment, particularly vacuums, enables the research and production of goods that could not otherwise be manufactured on Earth’s surface. The extraction and processing of raw materials from other astronomical bodies could enable more sustainable space manufacturing.

How does this industry work?

Space manufacturing refers to the production of products outside of Earth. Space offers a unique research and manufacturing environment to a broad range of sectors because of its near-vacuum state, microgravity (weightlessness), and higher levels of radiation. Many companies believe that the environment of space could help them discover new products, enhance their current offerings, or decrease development timelines.

What are the different types of space manufacturing?

Microgravity manufacturing

Space provides the optimal production environment, characterized by zero gravity, extreme temperatures, and vacuum conditions that can yield new materials that are purer and have fewer defects. In particular, zero gravity allows for the production of next-generation alloys (mixes of metal), biopharmaceuticals, and semiconductors.

Space also offers the benefit of having optimal hot or cold temperatures. It is estimated that thousands of new alloys could be synthesized in space.

Space Forge, a space manufacturing startup, states:

In-situ resource utilization

In situ resource utilization (ISRU) refers to the harnessing of local natural resources at mission destinations (usually from the Moon) to manufacture products for use in space. Instead of taking materials from Earth and bringing them up to use in space, ISRU means using the resources already in space to produce products in space, then using these space-manufactured products in space (lots of space there sorry).

This minimizes cost as you don’t have to constantly be launching products from the Earth when you could instead be launching them from the Moon, asteroids, or other planets.

On-orbit assembly and servicing

On-orbit assembly and services refers to the process of constructing, maintaining, and upgrading spacecraft and other space infrastructure while they are already in orbit around the Earth or another celestial body. On-orbit assembly involves launching individual components or modules of a larger spacecraft or structure into orbit separately and then assembling them in space.

Conventional launch vehicles used today have size and weight limitations for payloads. By launching components separately, larger structures can be assembled in space. As new technologies become available, outdated modules can be replaced or upgraded without having to decommission the entire spacecraft or structure.

Space Manufacturing Industry Dynamics

The in-space manufacturing industry is currently estimated to be worth around $4.4B, projected to grow 30% per year for the next 10 years. The current stage of technology is still very early, so realizing manufacturing in space isn’t going to happen anytime soon.

A growing number of businesses are increasingly backing their space ventures with large investments. Many of these businesses are partnering with government agencies to leverage the resources and expertise of both sectors to develop new technologies and approaches.

Both government and private entities have conducted experiments on various space manufacturing techniques on the International Space Station. These tests have validated technologies and processes for potential future applications.

What will the space manufacturing industry look like in the future?

In the future, space manufacturing is expected to evolve significantly, driven by technological advancements, growing commercial interests, and the need for sustainable space exploration and utilization.

Future space manufacturing will likely encompass a broader range of products and components. This will be enabled by advancements in additive manufacturing, robotics, and specialized manufacturing processes tailored for space applications.

As space manufacturing continues to expand, significant commercial involvement and investment from private companies will drive innovation and cost reductions.

Credit Statista

Space Companies

There are thousands (currently I estimate around 70k companies) in the space commercialization field. Some of the most notable are the following:

SpaceX

Blue Origin

Lockheed Martin

Northrop Grumman

Boeing

Axiom Space

Sierra Nevada Corporation

Maxar Technologies

Rocket Lab

Astra Space

Virgin Orbit

Relativity Space

Planet Labs

Redwire Space

D-Orbit

Momentus

Astroscale

LeoLabs

Analytical Graphics Inc.

Made In Space

**Note: If you don’t see a major space commercialization player on this list, don’t worry as it’s purely for lack of space. If I listed every major company doing anything, this blog post would be miles long.

Credit Department of State

Space Commercialization

Overall, the topic of space commercialization is extremely large, dense, and complex. I haven’t even mentioned many segments of this market (don’t worry there will be a follow-up to this post).

The commercial space industry is enabling new applications and services, such as satellite constellations for global internet connectivity, Earth observation, manufacturing, space tourism, etc. There is an increasing level of collaboration between government space agencies and private companies, which is only expected to continue as space becomes increasingly commercialized.

With the retirement of the International Space Station approaching, companies like Axiom Space and Sierra Nevada Corporation are working on commercial space stations.

The commercialization of space is expected to drive the development of a new space-based economy, with potential industries ranging from space mining and manufacturing to space-based solar power and beyond.

To conclude, Jeff Bezos said,

“Great industries are never made from single companies. There is room in space for a lot of winners.”

Anywho, that’s all for today.

-Drew Jackson