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Thesis: Space continues to become a hot commodity, and many countries want to use the Moon as a strategic base of operations. Firstly, however, these countries need to land people back on the Moon. Many countries and private entities are trying to achieve this critical milestone, with success yet to be seen.

If you haven’t read my Space Primer, I’d highly recommend it before reading this article as some of the terminology associated with this subject may be difficult to understand.

Credit Royal Museums Greenwich

Humans on the Moon

“That’s one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind.”

Arguably the most iconic words ever spoken in the realm of space, these words spoken by Neil Armstrong in 1969 ushered in a new generation of space technology.

After completing the recent Space Commercialization post, I felt the need to dive deeper into past efforts from humans in space–in this case, human space flight to the moon.

The goal of this article will be to understand past human missions to the moon and, more importantly, understand the future of moon travel.

To get there, let’s start at the beginning:

Credit Britannica

History of Humans on the Moon

Humans first landed on the moon in 1969, but that’s not where our story starts.

Let’s start with a writer named Lucian of Samosata, born around 125 AD. He wrote a story about himself and 50 others taking a boat that carried them to the Moon once hit by a giant waterspout. The lore goes along the lines of the following: This group met a race of 3-headed vultures and began a large war with them. Somehow they made their way back to Earth.

However preposterous, this is the earliest known story depicting a Moon landing. Ever since, humans have been fascinated with the idea of getting to the moon.

Fast forward to the 1800s, and we come across a French man named Jules Verne. In 1865, Jules published a book titled “From the Earth to the Moon: A Direct Route in 97 Hours, 20 Minutes.” Slightly comical, it tells the story of three people building a massive cannon to shoot them out into space, eventually landing on the moon.

What makes the story notable in the context of space landings is that Verne attempted to do rough calculations regarding the requirements for this cannon. Considering the lack of data surrounding space and the moon at the time, some of his figures are surprisingly accurate.

Where the action really started heating up was in the early 1950s, during the arms race between the United States and the U.S.S.R (now Russia). In 1955, both the USA and the U.S.S.R. announced their intentions to launch satellites into space.

Credit Cosmos Magazine

On October 4th, 1957, the Soviet Union launched the Sputnik 1 satellite into space. In response, United States President Eisenhower created the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) on February 7th, 1958, and the National Aeronautics Space Administration (NASA) on July 29th, 1958.

Following this, the Soviet Union became the first nation to put a man into space on April 12th, 1961. Directly following on May 25th, 1961, President John F. Kennedy announced the following:

"I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the Moon and returning him safely to the Earth. No single space project in this period will be more impressive to mankind, or more important in the long-range exploration of space; and none will be so difficult or expensive to accomplish."

These projects and initiatives culminated on July 20th, 1969, when Neil Armstrong became the first person to walk on the Moon–simultaneously cementing the United States’ position as space leader. This was accomplished during the Apollo 11 mission where Buzz Aldrin also walked on the moon.

Following this, there was Apollo 12 (Charles Conrad and Alan Bean), Apollo 14 (Edgar D. Mitchell), Apollo 15 (David R. Scott and James B. Irwin), Apollo 16 (John W. Young and Charles M. Duke), Apollo 17 (Eugene Cernan and Harrison H. Schmitt).

Between 1968 and 1972, 12 Americans walked on the Moon.

Yet, humans haven’t been to the moon since.

Credit IndiaToday

Why Haven’t Humans Been to the Moon Since

The big race was to the moon. So, when America won in 1969, the race was over. What was there left to play for? Honestly, nothing. The race was to get on the moon, not find water, not set up a base, not colonize, the goal was simply to put a human on the moon.

The Apollo segment originally had 20 missions planned, but after the 11th mission successfully placed people on the Moon, the subsequent missions were simply for technological performance and research. These missions weren’t seen as important as the achievement of the Moon landing itself, so the final three missions were canceled.

With the goal achieved, NASA faced large funding cuts. Apollo 11 was a political statement and once it had been made, the necessity for more missions to the Moon was gone. Originally Kennedy’s government had estimated the Apollo missions would cost around $7 billion. In the end, the first 17 missions cost around $20 billion.

In addition, there was lowering national support. The Apollo missions had taken place during an era of civil unrest in the United States, and large amounts of money being spent on space travel became a point of contention. Even directly after Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin stepped on the Moon, only 53% of Americans approved of the program, especially concerning its cost.

It wasn’t a lack of scientific or technical expertise, it was political issues.

Since then, a further Moon landing hasn’t been a priority.

Consider this excerpt from a 2024 Business Insider article:

"NASA's portion of the federal budget peaked at 4% in 1965," Walter Cunningham, an Apollo 7 astronaut, said during congressional testimony in 2015.

In comparison, NASA's 2023 budget represents roughly 0.5% of US spending, according to a report from the Planetary Society. It has fluctuated between 0.4% and 1% since the 1970s, the report said.

If landing on, exploring, or colonizing the Moon was a priority, NASA would have a much larger budget. But, it isn’t.

At least until now.

Credit Statista

Current Attempts to Get to the Moon

The space race is heating up again.

The United States, China, India, Russia, and Japan all have intentions to place people on the Moon. In addition, private entities also have signaled their intentions to put people on the Moon.

Credit 256 Today

United States: Artemis

The United States NASA Artemis program is a series of ongoing missions run by NASA.

NASA states:

“We will collaborate with commercial and international partners and establish the first long-term presence on the Moon. NASA will land the first woman and first person of color on the Moon.”

The Artemis program was formally established in 2017 with the purpose of reestablishing a human presence on the Moon for the first time since 1972.

The Artemis program is a series of missions that increase in complexity. NASA and its partners have planned Artemis 1 through 5 missions. What are these?

Artemis 1: Artemis 1 was a successful uncrewed test flight for the SLS and Orion completed in 2022.

Artemis 2: Artemis 2 is planned to be the first crewed test flight for the SLS and Orion spacecraft in 2025. Four crew members will help perform extensive testing in the Earth orbit then return back to re-entry.

Artemis 3: Artemis 3 is planned to be the first American crewed Moon landing since 1972, estimated to be completed in 2026. Two out of four astronauts are planned to spend around a week on the surface.

Artemis 4: Artemis 4 is planned to be a second Moon landing, estimated to be completed in 2028.

Artemis 5: Artemis 5 is planned to be the third Moon landing, estimated to be completed in 2029. This mission will also be the first to use Blue Origin’s Blue Moon lander to bring the astronauts down to the Moon’s surface.

However, these plans are only that, plans. At some point, these missions have to be paid for and they have to be politically advantageous for whoever is in office at that point in time.

It’s estimated that the Artemis program would cost around $93 billion from 2012 to 2025. In comparison, when adjusting to the value of a dollar today, the Apollo program would cost about $257 billion.

However, just because Artemis costs less doesn’t mean it will be possible. Back in the Apollo times during the space race, NASA accounted for around 5% of the entire federal budget. Yet, now NASA only makes up around 0.5% of the federal budget, around $26 billion currently.

In addition, the NASA today has many more priorities and directives. So, with less money comparatively and more priorities, it makes sense that NASA will make slower progress, even given the many advances in technology that have happened since 1972.

Yet, most Americans think NASA shouldn’t go back to the moon according to a 2023 Pew Research poll.

Credit The New York Times

Japan

In early 2024, Japan landed a spacecraft on the moon. This achievement puts Japan in an elite club occupied by the United States, Russia, India, and China.

In April 2024, United States President Biden announced that the next visit to the Moon by the United States will be accompanied by a Japanese astronaut. Further than this, Japan has not given any clear guidance on future manned missions to the moon.

Credit Boston Herald

India

In August 2023, India became the first country to land a spacecraft on the Moon’s south pole–where people believe frozen water will be found. This places India as the fourth nation to successfully land on the moon. The Indian government has said the next step is a manned lunar mission.

India’s space exploration program is part of a broad government strategy to realize the scientific, economic, technological, and security benefits of space. India’s space program is also used to attract young people into technology-niche fields and for generally expanding technologies used in society.

In 2023, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced plans for a space station by 2035 and expects to send an astronaut to the Moon by 2040.

Credit The Independent

China

China’s first manned space mission in 2003 made it the third country to put a person in space. Following this, China successfully landed an unmanned spacecraft on the Moon in 2013. In 2021, China launched its own space station, after being previously excluded from the International Space Station. Soon after, in 2023, they launched a 3-person crew to permanently man the station.

In 2023, China announced plans to put astronauts on the Moon before 2030. Future space ambitions are closely linked to the rivalry with the United States.

Credit Futurism

Russia

In 1961, Yuri Gagarin became the first human, a Russian, to venture into space. In 1971, Russia launched the first space station, the Mir space station. The Mir sported crews until 2000. Since then, Russia has continued to ferry astronauts to and from the International Space Station.

However, Russia has signaled recently that they tend to end the partnership with the International Space Station - potentially as early as 2024.

Russia has not given any official plans to put people on the moon immediately, but in 2022 Russia and China announced their intentions to build a joint base on the Moon in the mid-2030s. This implies they will land on the Moon before then, probably by 2030.

Private Sector Missions to the Moon

As of 2024, the first private company, Intuitive Machines, landed on the Moon. This marks the return of the United States to the Moon’s surface for the first time since 1972. The lander was ferried by a SpaceX Falcom 9 rocket.

Prior to this attempt, several other attempts to land on the Moon by private companies have been made. Israel’s Beresheet crashed into the Moon in 2019 and a Japanese company’s lander wrecked in 2023.

Credit National Space Society

When will humans next be on the moon?

According to the timelines set by each government, it seems as though the United States will be the nation to place humans on the Moon next.

NASA administrator Bill Nelson said in 2024:

"Artemis represents what we can accomplish as a country, as a global coalition. And what we can accomplish when we set our sights on what is hard. And what has never been done before."

Yet, it’s not that simple. This assumes an ambitious government or private sector entity doesn’t risk it early to try to claim the title, which may be possible.

A couple of things stand in the place of the private sector, with the main factor being budget. Private sector entities have very limited budgets compared to governments, meaning they need to find a way to do everything for a lower cost.

In addition, these projects almost always get delayed for one reason or another, which could make anyone the winner at this point.

On a more hopeful note, analysts project over 100 missions planned over the next decade to the Moon and the space around the Moon. This is promising as it signals large leaps and bounds expected in the near future.

Relating everything back to the United States, I think Buzz Aldrin recently said it best:

"American leadership is inspiring the world by consistently doing what no other nation is capable of doing. We demonstrated that for a brief time 45 years ago. I do not believe we have done it since," Aldrin wrote in a statement. "I believe it begins with a bipartisan congressional and administration commitment to sustained leadership."

Anywho, that’s all for today.

-Drew Jackson